Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $560 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $500 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $51.61 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $560 by Nov 20: the long call returns +$839 (16.3%) on $5,161 risked, vs +$5,580 (11.1%) for 100 shares on $50,420. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $560 by Nov 20
+$839
+16.3% on $5,161 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$5,161
Premium paid
Break-even
$551.61
+9.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.16 / -39.11 / 83.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$3,929 | -$4,452 | -$4,963 | -$5,161 |
| $429 (-15%) | -$3,229 | -$3,900 | -$4,666 | -$5,161 |
| $454 (-10%) | -$2,315 | -$3,112 | -$4,115 | -$5,161 |
| $479 (-5%) | -$1,182 | -$2,066 | -$3,240 | -$5,161 |
| $494 (-2%) | -$398 | -$1,313 | -$2,544 | -$5,161 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | +$166 | -$761 | -$2,008 | -$4,741 |
| $514 (+2%) | +$761 | -$170 | -$1,417 | -$3,733 |
| $529 (+5%) | +$1,713 | +$787 | -$432 | -$2,220 |
| $555 (+10%) | +$3,440 | +$2,552 | +$1,439 | +$301 |
| $560 (+11%) โ target | +$3,830 | +$2,953 | +$1,870 | +$839 |
| $580 (+15%) | +$5,324 | +$4,500 | +$3,538 | +$2,822 |
| $605 (+20%) | +$7,341 | +$6,597 | +$5,801 | +$5,343 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.