Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $43.53 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $445 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$1,147 (26.3%) on $4,353 risked, vs $-5,920 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $50,420. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $445 by Nov 20
+$1,147
+26.3% on $4,353 risked
Max Profit
+$45,647
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$4,353
Premium paid
Break-even
$456.47
-9.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.17 / -34.2 / 83.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | +$6,144 | +$5,750 | +$5,373 | +$5,311 |
| $429 (-15%) | +$4,323 | +$3,780 | +$3,150 | +$2,790 |
| $445 (-12%) โ target | +$3,251 | +$2,622 | +$1,832 | +$1,147 |
| $454 (-10%) | +$2,716 | +$2,048 | +$1,179 | +$269 |
| $479 (-5%) | +$1,328 | +$573 | -$467 | -$2,252 |
| $494 (-2%) | +$599 | -$188 | -$1,283 | -$3,765 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | +$155 | -$644 | -$1,755 | -$4,353 |
| $514 (+2%) | -$258 | -$1,061 | -$2,172 | -$4,353 |
| $529 (+5%) | -$819 | -$1,617 | -$2,701 | -$4,353 |
| $555 (+10%) | -$1,613 | -$2,373 | -$3,351 | -$4,353 |
| $580 (+15%) | -$2,250 | -$2,946 | -$3,772 | -$4,353 |
| $605 (+20%) | -$2,754 | -$3,369 | -$4,030 | -$4,353 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.