Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $560 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $504.2 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $560 by Nov 20: the long stock returns +$5,580 (11.1%) on $50,420 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Nov 20.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $560 by Nov 20
+$5,580
+11.1% on $50,420 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$50,420
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$504.20
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 16 | Nov 15 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$10,084 | -$10,084 | -$10,084 |
| $429 (-15%) | -$7,563 | -$7,563 | -$7,563 |
| $454 (-10%) | -$5,042 | -$5,042 | -$5,042 |
| $479 (-5%) | -$2,521 | -$2,521 | -$2,521 |
| $494 (-2%) | -$1,008 | -$1,008 | -$1,008 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $514 (+2%) | +$1,008 | +$1,008 | +$1,008 |
| $529 (+5%) | +$2,521 | +$2,521 | +$2,521 |
| $555 (+10%) | +$5,042 | +$5,042 | +$5,042 |
| $560 (+11%) โ target | +$5,580 | +$5,580 | +$5,580 |
| $580 (+15%) | +$7,563 | +$7,563 | +$7,563 |
| $605 (+20%) | +$10,084 | +$10,084 | +$10,084 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.