Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $550 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $504.2 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $480 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.4 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $550 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$1,140 (2.1%) on $53,860 risked, vs +$4,580 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $50,420. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $550. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $550 by Nov 20
+$1,140
+2.1% on $53,860 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$5,860
Put floors you at $480
Break-even
$538.60
+6.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.62 / -31.85 / 81.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$4,635 | -$5,110 | -$5,633 | -$5,860 |
| $429 (-15%) | -$3,789 | -$4,398 | -$5,170 | -$5,860 |
| $454 (-10%) | -$2,715 | -$3,423 | -$4,388 | -$5,860 |
| $479 (-5%) | -$1,415 | -$2,177 | -$3,238 | -$5,860 |
| $494 (-2%) | -$533 | -$1,304 | -$2,371 | -$4,448 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | +$96 | -$673 | -$1,724 | -$3,440 |
| $514 (+2%) | +$755 | -$5 | -$1,026 | -$2,432 |
| $529 (+5%) | +$1,798 | +$1,062 | +$108 | -$919 |
| $550 (+9%) โ target | +$3,313 | +$2,626 | +$1,790 | +$1,140 |
| $580 (+15%) | +$5,676 | +$5,082 | +$4,441 | +$4,123 |
| $605 (+20%) | +$7,802 | +$7,295 | +$6,810 | +$6,644 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.