Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $580 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $500 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $51.61 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $43.53 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $580 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns $-1,514 (-15.9%) on $9,514 risked, vs +$7,580 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $50,420. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $580. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $580 by Nov 20
$-1,514
-15.9% on $9,514 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$9,514
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$595.14
+18.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.99 / -73.31 / 167.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | +$2,215 | +$1,298 | +$410 | +$150 |
| $429 (-15%) | +$1,094 | -$120 | -$1,516 | -$2,371 |
| $454 (-10%) | +$401 | -$1,064 | -$2,936 | -$4,892 |
| $479 (-5%) | +$147 | -$1,493 | -$3,707 | -$7,413 |
| $494 (-2%) | +$201 | -$1,501 | -$3,827 | -$8,926 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | +$320 | -$1,405 | -$3,763 | -$9,094 |
| $514 (+2%) | +$504 | -$1,231 | -$3,590 | -$8,086 |
| $529 (+5%) | +$894 | -$830 | -$3,133 | -$6,573 |
| $555 (+10%) | +$1,827 | +$179 | -$1,912 | -$4,052 |
| $580 (+15%) โ target | +$3,083 | +$1,564 | -$221 | -$1,514 |
| $605 (+20%) | +$4,588 | +$3,228 | +$1,771 | +$990 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.