Target Price Playground
AMD
$533.21
๐ข
AMD IV: 70.0% โ LOW
(-24.8% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $580 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $533.21 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $580 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $49.4 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $580 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$9,620 (19.9%) on $48,381 risked, vs +$4,680 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $53,321. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $580. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $580 by Aug 21
+$9,620
+19.9% on $48,381 risked
Max Profit
+$9,620
If the stock โฅ $580 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$48,381
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$483.81
-9.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.26 / 55.01 / -91.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $427 (-20%) | -$7,027 | -$6,411 | -$5,887 | -$5,724 |
| $453 (-15%) | -$4,986 | -$4,197 | -$3,424 | -$3,058 |
| $480 (-10%) | -$3,112 | -$2,159 | -$1,116 | -$392 |
| $507 (-5%) | -$1,412 | -$316 | +$983 | +$2,274 |
| $523 (-2%) | -$478 | +$692 | +$2,124 | +$3,874 |
| $533 (0%) โ spot | +$110 | +$1,321 | +$2,831 | +$4,940 |
| $544 (+2%) | +$670 | +$1,918 | +$3,493 | +$6,006 |
| $560 (+5%) | +$1,460 | +$2,751 | +$4,402 | +$7,606 |
| $580 (+9%) โ target | +$2,370 | +$3,696 | +$5,404 | +$9,619 |
| $587 (+10%) | +$2,645 | +$3,979 | +$5,695 | +$9,619 |
| $613 (+15%) | +$3,676 | +$5,018 | +$6,722 | +$9,619 |
| $640 (+20%) | +$4,565 | +$5,885 | +$7,514 | +$9,619 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.