Target Price Playground
AMZN
$256.29
🟢
AMZN IV: 34.1% — LOW
(-25.4% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $256.29 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $275 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.52 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $275 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$2,823 (11.4%) on $24,677 risked, vs +$1,871 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $25,629. Options give 1.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $275 by Dec 18
+$2,823
+11.4% on $24,677 risked
Max Profit
+$2,823
If the stock ≥ $275 at expiry
Max Loss
−$24,677
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$246.77
-3.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
62.23 / 11.31 / -41.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $205 (-20%) | -$4,220 | -$4,185 | -$4,174 | -$4,174 |
| $218 (-15%) | -$3,013 | -$2,935 | -$2,895 | -$2,892 |
| $231 (-10%) | -$1,883 | -$1,739 | -$1,633 | -$1,611 |
| $243 (-5%) | -$863 | -$642 | -$426 | -$329 |
| $251 (-2%) | -$318 | -$52 | +$240 | +$439 |
| $256 (0%) ← spot | +$16 | +$308 | +$648 | +$952 |
| $261 (+2%) | +$325 | +$639 | +$1,021 | +$1,465 |
| $269 (+5%) | +$739 | +$1,077 | +$1,503 | +$2,233 |
| $275 (+7%) ← target | +$1,019 | +$1,367 | +$1,809 | +$2,823 |
| $282 (+10%) | +$1,306 | +$1,655 | +$2,095 | +$2,823 |
| $295 (+15%) | +$1,729 | +$2,058 | +$2,445 | +$2,823 |
| $308 (+20%) | +$2,030 | +$2,319 | +$2,622 | +$2,823 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.