Target Price Playground
ARM
$302.56
🟢
ARM IV: 66.3% — LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 83.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $305 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $35.61 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $280 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $23.05 · Δ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $265 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,244 (99.0%) on $1,256 risked, vs $-3,756 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $30,256. Options give 8.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $265 by Dec 18
+$1,244
+99.0% on $1,256 risked
Max Profit
+$1,244
If the stock ≤ $280 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,256
Net debit
Break-even
$292.44
-3.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-10.94 / -1.26 / 2.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $242 (-20%) | +$662 | +$752 | +$929 | +$1,244 |
| $257 (-15%) | +$499 | +$566 | +$714 | +$1,244 |
| $265 (-12%) ← target | +$412 | +$462 | +$582 | +$1,244 |
| $272 (-10%) | +$329 | +$362 | +$449 | +$1,244 |
| $287 (-5%) | +$156 | +$151 | +$156 | +$501 |
| $297 (-2%) | +$54 | +$26 | -$22 | -$407 |
| $303 (0%) ← spot | -$13 | -$56 | -$137 | -$1,012 |
| $309 (+2%) | -$79 | -$136 | -$249 | -$1,256 |
| $318 (+5%) | -$174 | -$252 | -$406 | -$1,256 |
| $333 (+10%) | -$324 | -$431 | -$636 | -$1,256 |
| $348 (+15%) | -$460 | -$588 | -$820 | -$1,256 |
| $363 (+20%) | -$582 | -$723 | -$959 | -$1,256 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.