Target Price Playground
ARM
$302.56
🟢
ARM IV: 66.3% — LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 83.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $302.56 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $325 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $27.94 · Δ 0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $325 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$5,038 (18.3%) on $27,462 risked, vs +$2,244 (7.4%) for 100 shares on $30,256. Options give 2.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $325 by Dec 18
+$5,038
+18.3% on $27,462 risked
Max Profit
+$5,038
If the stock ≥ $325 at expiry
Max Loss
−$27,462
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$274.62
-9.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
52.48 / 26.3 / -53.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $242 (-20%) | -$3,996 | -$3,644 | -$3,345 | -$3,257 |
| $257 (-15%) | -$2,845 | -$2,394 | -$1,948 | -$1,744 |
| $272 (-10%) | -$1,794 | -$1,249 | -$645 | -$232 |
| $287 (-5%) | -$845 | -$219 | +$532 | +$1,281 |
| $297 (-2%) | -$325 | +$341 | +$1,167 | +$2,189 |
| $303 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$689 | +$1,557 | +$2,794 |
| $309 (+2%) | +$310 | +$1,017 | +$1,920 | +$3,399 |
| $318 (+5%) | +$744 | +$1,474 | +$2,415 | +$4,307 |
| $325 (+7%) ← target | +$1,069 | +$1,811 | +$2,770 | +$5,038 |
| $333 (+10%) | +$1,392 | +$2,141 | +$3,108 | +$5,038 |
| $348 (+15%) | +$1,951 | +$2,699 | +$3,645 | +$5,038 |
| $363 (+20%) | +$2,429 | +$3,158 | +$4,048 | +$5,038 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.