Target Price Playground
ARM
$302.56
🟢
ARM IV: 66.3% — LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 83.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $302.56 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $285 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $25.44 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $335 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$700 (2.1%) on $32,800 risked, vs +$3,244 (10.7%) for 100 shares on $30,256. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $335 by Dec 18
+$700
+2.1% on $32,800 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$4,300
Put floors you at $285
Break-even
$328.00
+8.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
64.79 / -21.56 / 49.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $242 (-20%) | -$3,069 | -$3,482 | -$3,961 | -$4,300 |
| $257 (-15%) | -$2,472 | -$2,961 | -$3,579 | -$4,300 |
| $272 (-10%) | -$1,758 | -$2,300 | -$3,016 | -$4,300 |
| $287 (-5%) | -$931 | -$1,501 | -$2,262 | -$4,057 |
| $297 (-2%) | -$384 | -$959 | -$1,720 | -$3,149 |
| $303 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$574 | -$1,325 | -$2,544 |
| $309 (+2%) | +$399 | -$170 | -$905 | -$1,939 |
| $318 (+5%) | +$1,026 | +$469 | -$231 | -$1,031 |
| $335 (+11%) ← target | +$2,301 | +$1,782 | +$1,176 | +$700 |
| $348 (+15%) | +$3,315 | +$2,834 | +$2,309 | +$1,994 |
| $363 (+20%) | +$4,558 | +$4,126 | +$3,697 | +$3,507 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.