Target Price Playground
ASML
$1,834.10
🟢
ASML IV: 43.6% — LOW
(-35.7% vs 30d avg of 67.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $2020 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1834.1 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $1740 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $79.93 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ASML hits $2020 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$10,597 (5.5%) on $191,403 risked, vs +$18,590 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $183,410. Options give 0.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASML is at $2020. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ASML hits $2020 by Dec 18
+$10,597
+5.5% on $191,403 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$17,403
Put floors you at $1740
Break-even
$1914.03
+4.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
64.9 / -77.86 / 310.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ASML Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1467 (-20%) | -$14,605 | -$15,901 | -$17,145 | -$17,403 |
| $1559 (-15%) | -$11,804 | -$13,630 | -$15,787 | -$17,403 |
| $1651 (-10%) | -$8,062 | -$10,281 | -$13,179 | -$17,403 |
| $1742 (-5%) | -$3,374 | -$5,790 | -$9,035 | -$17,164 |
| $1797 (-2%) | -$127 | -$2,563 | -$5,797 | -$11,661 |
| $1834 (0%) ← spot | +$2,207 | -$204 | -$3,349 | -$7,993 |
| $1871 (+2%) | +$4,668 | +$2,308 | -$693 | -$4,325 |
| $1926 (+5%) | +$8,583 | +$6,342 | +$3,634 | +$1,178 |
| $2020 (+10%) ← target | +$15,831 | +$13,878 | +$11,779 | +$10,597 |
| $2109 (+15%) | +$23,229 | +$21,596 | +$20,071 | +$19,518 |
| $2201 (+20%) | +$31,259 | +$29,956 | +$28,927 | +$28,689 |
Uses ASML's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.