Target Price Playground
BKR
$55.23
🟢
BKR IV: 33.7% — LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 47.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $52 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $55 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $3.44 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $52 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.36 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If BKR hits $52 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$170 (81.8%) on $208 risked, vs $-323 (-5.8%) for 100 shares on $5,523. Options give 14.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKR is at $52. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if BKR hits $52 by Dec 18
+$170
+81.8% on $208 risked
Max Profit
+$167
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$207
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$54.92
-0.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-16.46 / 0.14 / 3.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| BKR Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | +$75 | +$80 | +$81 | +$76 |
| $47 (-15%) | +$68 | +$79 | +$90 | +$86 |
| $50 (-10%) | +$49 | +$64 | +$88 | +$118 |
| $52 (-6%) ← target | +$24 | +$38 | +$63 | +$174 |
| $54 (-2%) | -$5 | +$5 | +$21 | +$44 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | -$21 | -$15 | -$6 | -$9 |
| $56 (+2%) | -$38 | -$35 | -$34 | -$55 |
| $58 (+5%) | -$63 | -$66 | -$74 | -$108 |
| $61 (+10%) | -$102 | -$112 | -$130 | -$163 |
| $64 (+15%) | -$135 | -$148 | -$167 | -$190 |
| $66 (+20%) | -$160 | -$173 | -$188 | -$201 |
Uses BKR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.