Target Price Playground
BKR
$55.23
🟢
BKR IV: 33.7% — LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 47.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $49 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $55 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.85 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If BKR hits $49 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$315 (110.5%) on $285 risked, vs $-623 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $5,523. Options give 9.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKR is at $49. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if BKR hits $49 by Dec 18
+$315
+110.5% on $285 risked
Max Profit
+$5,215
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$285
Premium paid
Break-even
$52.15
-5.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-45.33 / -2.86 / 7.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| BKR Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | +$778 | +$780 | +$786 | +$797 |
| $47 (-15%) | +$527 | +$516 | +$512 | +$520 |
| $49 (-11%) ← target | +$358 | +$335 | +$315 | +$315 |
| $50 (-10%) | +$304 | +$277 | +$251 | +$244 |
| $52 (-5%) | +$118 | +$77 | +$26 | -$32 |
| $54 (-2%) | +$26 | -$19 | -$80 | -$198 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | -$26 | -$73 | -$136 | -$285 |
| $56 (+2%) | -$71 | -$118 | -$180 | -$285 |
| $58 (+5%) | -$128 | -$172 | -$227 | -$285 |
| $61 (+10%) | -$196 | -$231 | -$267 | -$285 |
| $64 (+15%) | -$237 | -$261 | -$281 | -$285 |
| $66 (+20%) | -$261 | -$276 | -$284 | -$285 |
Uses BKR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.