Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
CDNS
$359.55
🟢
CDNS IV: 42.6% — LOW (-45.6% vs 30d avg of 78.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $380 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $330 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $19.09 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry Now $360 Target $380 $252 $360 $467
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If CDNS hits $380 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$1,909 (6.1%) on $-1,909 credit (max loss $31,091), vs +$2,045 (5.7%) for 100 shares on $35,955. Options give 1.1× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CDNS is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if CDNS hits $380 by Dec 18
+$1,909
+6.1% on $31,091 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,909
If the stock ≥ $330 at expiry
Max Loss
−$31,091
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$310.91
-13.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
28.01 / 15.07 / -52.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

CDNS Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$288 (-20%) -$3,009 -$2,737 -$2,448 -$2,327
$306 (-15%) -$1,841 -$1,476 -$1,017 -$529
$324 (-10%) -$875 -$453 +$111 +$1,269
$342 (-5%) -$107 +$328 +$904 +$1,909
$352 (-2%) +$268 +$691 +$1,232 +$1,909
$360 (0%) ← spot +$484 +$893 +$1,398 +$1,909
$367 (+2%) +$677 +$1,067 +$1,529 +$1,909
$380 (+6%) ← target +$974 +$1,323 +$1,697 +$1,909
$396 (+10%) +$1,242 +$1,534 +$1,808 +$1,909
$413 (+15%) +$1,465 +$1,692 +$1,869 +$1,909
$431 (+20%) +$1,619 +$1,787 +$1,895 +$1,909
Uses CDNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.