Target Price Playground
CDNS
$359.55
🟢
CDNS IV: 42.6% — LOW
(-45.6% vs 30d avg of 78.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $359.55 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $390 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.29 · Δ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CDNS hits $390 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$4,774 (13.9%) on $34,226 risked, vs +$3,045 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $35,955. Options give 1.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CDNS is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CDNS hits $390 by Dec 18
+$4,774
+13.9% on $34,226 risked
Max Profit
+$4,774
If the stock ≥ $390 at expiry
Max Loss
−$34,226
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$342.26
-4.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
61.11 / 19.83 / -58.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CDNS Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $288 (-20%) | -$5,672 | -$5,537 | -$5,468 | -$5,462 |
| $306 (-15%) | -$4,077 | -$3,850 | -$3,692 | -$3,664 |
| $324 (-10%) | -$2,600 | -$2,264 | -$1,966 | -$1,866 |
| $342 (-5%) | -$1,268 | -$823 | -$350 | -$69 |
| $352 (-2%) | -$547 | -$42 | +$537 | +$1,010 |
| $360 (0%) ← spot | -$100 | +$439 | +$1,082 | +$1,729 |
| $367 (+2%) | +$319 | +$888 | +$1,587 | +$2,448 |
| $378 (+5%) | +$897 | +$1,499 | +$2,262 | +$3,527 |
| $390 (+8%) ← target | +$1,488 | +$2,113 | +$2,913 | +$4,774 |
| $396 (+10%) | +$1,725 | +$2,353 | +$3,157 | +$4,774 |
| $413 (+15%) | +$2,394 | +$3,013 | +$3,779 | +$4,774 |
| $431 (+20%) | +$2,923 | +$3,504 | +$4,178 | +$4,774 |
Uses CDNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.