Target Price Playground
CDNS
$359.55
🟢
CDNS IV: 42.6% — LOW
(-45.6% vs 30d avg of 78.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $360 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $29.6 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $340 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $16.6 · Δ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CDNS hits $340 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,429 (109.9%) on $1,300 risked, vs $-1,955 (-5.4%) for 100 shares on $35,955. Options give 20.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CDNS is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CDNS hits $340 by Dec 18
+$1,429
+109.9% on $1,300 risked
Max Profit
+$1,385
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$1,281
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$367.12
+2.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-10.9 / 1.93 / 13.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CDNS Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $288 (-20%) | +$557 | +$633 | +$704 | +$639 |
| $306 (-15%) | +$490 | +$592 | +$736 | +$774 |
| $324 (-10%) | +$383 | +$494 | +$686 | +$1,069 |
| $340 (-5%) ← target | +$255 | +$355 | +$542 | +$1,543 |
| $352 (-2%) | +$143 | +$224 | +$374 | +$816 |
| $360 (0%) ← spot | +$74 | +$140 | +$259 | +$457 |
| $367 (+2%) | +$2 | +$52 | +$134 | +$143 |
| $378 (+5%) | -$107 | -$85 | -$61 | -$248 |
| $396 (+10%) | -$290 | -$312 | -$378 | -$710 |
| $413 (+15%) | -$465 | -$524 | -$653 | -$989 |
| $431 (+20%) | -$624 | -$709 | -$868 | -$1,146 |
Uses CDNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.