Target Price Playground
CDNS
$359.55
🟢
CDNS IV: 42.6% — LOW
(-45.6% vs 30d avg of 78.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $360 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $39.95 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CDNS hits $315 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$505 (12.6%) on $3,995 risked, vs $-4,455 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $35,955. Options give 1.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CDNS is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CDNS hits $315 by Dec 18
+$505
+12.6% on $3,995 risked
Max Profit
+$32,005
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$3,995
Premium paid
Break-even
$320.05
-10.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-45.14 / -17.6 / 63.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CDNS Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $288 (-20%) | +$3,389 | +$3,253 | +$3,175 | +$3,241 |
| $306 (-15%) | +$1,964 | +$1,717 | +$1,482 | +$1,443 |
| $315 (-12%) ← target | +$1,285 | +$981 | +$654 | +$505 |
| $324 (-10%) | +$705 | +$354 | -$59 | -$355 |
| $342 (-5%) | -$370 | -$800 | -$1,359 | -$2,152 |
| $352 (-2%) | -$926 | -$1,385 | -$1,999 | -$3,231 |
| $360 (0%) ← spot | -$1,260 | -$1,730 | -$2,362 | -$3,950 |
| $367 (+2%) | -$1,566 | -$2,041 | -$2,676 | -$3,995 |
| $378 (+5%) | -$1,975 | -$2,445 | -$3,061 | -$3,995 |
| $396 (+10%) | -$2,532 | -$2,970 | -$3,502 | -$3,995 |
| $413 (+15%) | -$2,954 | -$3,338 | -$3,754 | -$3,995 |
| $431 (+20%) | -$3,267 | -$3,586 | -$3,885 | -$3,995 |
Uses CDNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.