Target Price Playground
CDNS
$359.55
🟢
CDNS IV: 42.6% — LOW
(-45.6% vs 30d avg of 78.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $359.55 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $340 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $16.6 · Δ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CDNS hits $395 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,885 (5.0%) on $37,615 risked, vs +$3,545 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $35,955. Options give 0.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CDNS is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CDNS hits $395 by Dec 18
+$1,885
+5.0% on $37,615 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$3,615
Put floors you at $340
Break-even
$376.15
+4.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
66.5 / -16.21 / 60.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CDNS Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $288 (-20%) | -$3,148 | -$3,375 | -$3,587 | -$3,615 |
| $306 (-15%) | -$2,614 | -$2,946 | -$3,335 | -$3,615 |
| $324 (-10%) | -$1,886 | -$2,295 | -$2,830 | -$3,615 |
| $342 (-5%) | -$963 | -$1,409 | -$2,008 | -$3,458 |
| $352 (-2%) | -$319 | -$766 | -$1,359 | -$2,379 |
| $360 (0%) ← spot | +$145 | -$296 | -$867 | -$1,660 |
| $367 (+2%) | +$635 | +$206 | -$334 | -$941 |
| $378 (+5%) | +$1,416 | +$1,013 | +$534 | +$138 |
| $395 (+10%) ← target | +$2,781 | +$2,434 | +$2,071 | +$1,885 |
| $413 (+15%) | +$4,337 | +$4,058 | +$3,810 | +$3,733 |
| $431 (+20%) | +$5,935 | +$5,720 | +$5,562 | +$5,531 |
Uses CDNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.