Target Price Playground
CDNS
$359.55
🟢
CDNS IV: 42.6% — LOW
(-45.6% vs 30d avg of 78.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $360 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $29.49 · Δ 0.55
LONG PUT · $360 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $39.95 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CDNS hits $415 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns $-1,444 (-20.8%) on $6,944 risked, vs +$5,545 (15.4%) for 100 shares on $35,955. Options give 1.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CDNS is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CDNS hits $415 by Dec 18
$-1,444
-20.8% on $6,944 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$6,944
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$290.56
-19.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
44%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
10.27 / -38.93 / 126.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CDNS Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $288 (-20%) | +$906 | +$528 | +$267 | +$292 |
| $306 (-15%) | -$146 | -$746 | -$1,321 | -$1,506 |
| $324 (-10%) | -$865 | -$1,674 | -$2,605 | -$3,304 |
| $342 (-5%) | -$1,219 | -$2,184 | -$3,410 | -$5,101 |
| $352 (-2%) | -$1,252 | -$2,275 | -$3,609 | -$6,180 |
| $360 (0%) ← spot | -$1,201 | -$2,247 | -$3,617 | -$6,899 |
| $367 (+2%) | -$1,094 | -$2,149 | -$3,527 | -$6,270 |
| $378 (+5%) | -$832 | -$1,879 | -$3,217 | -$5,191 |
| $396 (+10%) | -$148 | -$1,130 | -$2,300 | -$3,393 |
| $415 (+15%) ← target | +$895 | +$33 | -$885 | -$1,444 |
| $431 (+20%) | +$1,976 | +$1,233 | +$528 | +$202 |
Uses CDNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.