Target Price Playground
CEG
$300.40
🟢
CEG IV: 44.8% — LOW
(-22.7% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $300 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $24.83 · Δ -0.47
SHORT PUT · $275 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.2 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CEG hits $265 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,337 (114.9%) on $1,163 risked, vs $-3,540 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $30,040. Options give 9.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CEG is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CEG hits $265 by Dec 18
+$1,337
+114.9% on $1,163 risked
Max Profit
+$1,337
If the stock ≤ $275 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,163
Net debit
Break-even
$288.37
-4.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-17.95 / -1.42 / 6.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CEG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $240 (-20%) | +$851 | +$961 | +$1,144 | +$1,337 |
| $255 (-15%) | +$644 | +$734 | +$914 | +$1,337 |
| $265 (-12%) ← target | +$497 | +$564 | +$707 | +$1,337 |
| $270 (-10%) | +$413 | +$463 | +$576 | +$1,337 |
| $285 (-5%) | +$174 | +$173 | +$176 | +$299 |
| $294 (-2%) | +$33 | +$0 | -$66 | -$602 |
| $300 (0%) ← spot | -$58 | -$111 | -$219 | -$1,163 |
| $306 (+2%) | -$147 | -$218 | -$362 | -$1,163 |
| $315 (+5%) | -$273 | -$367 | -$554 | -$1,163 |
| $330 (+10%) | -$462 | -$583 | -$801 | -$1,163 |
| $345 (+15%) | -$622 | -$755 | -$964 | -$1,163 |
| $360 (+20%) | -$754 | -$885 | -$1,061 | -$1,163 |
Uses CEG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.