Target Price Playground
CEG
$300.40
🟢
CEG IV: 44.8% — LOW
(-22.7% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $300 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $24.83 · Δ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CEG hits $265 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$1,017 (41.0%) on $2,483 risked, vs $-3,540 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $30,040. Options give 3.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CEG is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CEG hits $265 by Dec 18
+$1,017
+41.0% on $2,483 risked
Max Profit
+$27,517
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$2,483
Premium paid
Break-even
$275.17
-8.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-46.8 / -15.59 / 52.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CEG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $240 (-20%) | +$3,714 | +$3,561 | +$3,450 | +$3,485 |
| $255 (-15%) | +$2,561 | +$2,313 | +$2,063 | +$1,983 |
| $265 (-12%) ← target | +$1,890 | +$1,586 | +$1,238 | +$1,017 |
| $270 (-10%) | +$1,543 | +$1,211 | +$812 | +$481 |
| $285 (-5%) | +$670 | +$276 | -$240 | -$1,021 |
| $294 (-2%) | +$216 | -$201 | -$757 | -$1,922 |
| $300 (0%) ← spot | -$59 | -$484 | -$1,054 | -$2,483 |
| $306 (+2%) | -$311 | -$740 | -$1,313 | -$2,483 |
| $315 (+5%) | -$651 | -$1,076 | -$1,633 | -$2,483 |
| $330 (+10%) | -$1,120 | -$1,520 | -$2,010 | -$2,483 |
| $345 (+15%) | -$1,485 | -$1,841 | -$2,236 | -$2,483 |
| $360 (+20%) | -$1,761 | -$2,065 | -$2,361 | -$2,483 |
Uses CEG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.