Target Price Playground
CEG
$300.40
🟢
CEG IV: 44.8% — LOW
(-22.7% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $330 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $300.4 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $285 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.14 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CEG hits $330 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,246 (3.9%) on $31,754 risked, vs +$2,960 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $30,040. Options give 0.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CEG is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CEG hits $330 by Dec 18
+$1,246
+3.9% on $31,754 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$3,254
Put floors you at $285
Break-even
$317.54
+5.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
65.27 / -15.17 / 49.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CEG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $240 (-20%) | -$2,766 | -$2,987 | -$3,203 | -$3,254 |
| $255 (-15%) | -$2,300 | -$2,608 | -$2,973 | -$3,254 |
| $270 (-10%) | -$1,683 | -$2,054 | -$2,540 | -$3,254 |
| $285 (-5%) | -$913 | -$1,317 | -$1,859 | -$3,216 |
| $294 (-2%) | -$381 | -$789 | -$1,329 | -$2,315 |
| $300 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$403 | -$929 | -$1,714 |
| $306 (+2%) | +$403 | +$7 | -$496 | -$1,113 |
| $315 (+5%) | +$1,042 | +$665 | +$209 | -$212 |
| $330 (+10%) ← target | +$2,157 | +$1,824 | +$1,461 | +$1,246 |
| $345 (+15%) | +$3,431 | +$3,153 | +$2,891 | +$2,792 |
| $360 (+20%) | +$4,741 | +$4,517 | +$4,338 | +$4,294 |
Uses CEG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.