Target Price Playground
CMCSA
$23.22
🟢
CMCSA IV: 24.5% — LOW
(-64.8% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $21 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $23 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.11 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $22 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.53 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CMCSA hits $21 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$92 (157.3%) on $58 risked, vs $-272 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $2,322. Options give 13.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CMCSA is at $21. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CMCSA hits $21 by Dec 18
+$92
+157.3% on $58 risked
Max Profit
+$92
If the stock ≤ $22 at expiry
Max Loss
−$58
Net debit
Break-even
$22.42
-3.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-17.49 / -0.19 / 0.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CMCSA Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19 (-20%) | +$77 | +$83 | +$90 | +$92 |
| $20 (-15%) | +$63 | +$70 | +$81 | +$92 |
| $21 (-12%) ← target | +$51 | +$57 | +$68 | +$92 |
| $21 (-10%) | +$44 | +$49 | +$59 | +$92 |
| $22 (-5%) | +$22 | +$22 | +$24 | +$36 |
| $23 (-2%) | +$9 | +$6 | +$1 | -$34 |
| $23 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$4 | -$12 | -$58 |
| $24 (+2%) | -$8 | -$13 | -$24 | -$58 |
| $24 (+5%) | -$18 | -$25 | -$37 | -$58 |
| $26 (+10%) | -$33 | -$40 | -$51 | -$58 |
| $27 (+15%) | -$43 | -$49 | -$56 | -$58 |
| $28 (+20%) | -$49 | -$54 | -$57 | -$58 |
Uses CMCSA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.