Target Price Playground
CMCSA
$23.22
🟢
CMCSA IV: 24.5% — LOW
(-64.8% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $21 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $23 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.11 · Δ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CMCSA hits $21 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$139 (124.8%) on $111 risked, vs $-272 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $2,322. Options give 10.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CMCSA is at $21. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CMCSA hits $21 by Dec 18
+$139
+124.8% on $111 risked
Max Profit
+$2,189
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$111
Premium paid
Break-even
$21.89
-5.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-42.84 / -1.19 / 3.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CMCSA Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19 (-20%) | +$326 | +$325 | +$327 | +$331 |
| $20 (-15%) | +$224 | +$217 | +$213 | +$215 |
| $21 (-12%) ← target | +$163 | +$151 | +$141 | +$139 |
| $21 (-10%) | +$133 | +$120 | +$105 | +$99 |
| $22 (-5%) | +$58 | +$39 | +$15 | -$17 |
| $23 (-2%) | +$21 | +$0 | -$27 | -$87 |
| $23 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$21 | -$49 | -$111 |
| $24 (+2%) | -$18 | -$39 | -$67 | -$111 |
| $24 (+5%) | -$42 | -$61 | -$86 | -$111 |
| $26 (+10%) | -$70 | -$86 | -$103 | -$111 |
| $27 (+15%) | -$88 | -$99 | -$109 | -$111 |
| $28 (+20%) | -$99 | -$106 | -$110 | -$111 |
Uses CMCSA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.