Target Price Playground
CMCSA
$23.22
🟢
CMCSA IV: 24.5% — LOW
(-64.8% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $26 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $23.22 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $22 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.69 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CMCSA hits $26 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$209 (8.7%) on $2,391 risked, vs +$278 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $2,322. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CMCSA is at $26. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CMCSA hits $26 by Dec 18
+$209
+8.7% on $2,391 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$191
Put floors you at $22
Break-even
$23.91
+2.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
69.11 / -1.09 / 2.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CMCSA Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19 (-20%) | -$187 | -$192 | -$194 | -$191 |
| $20 (-15%) | -$165 | -$177 | -$188 | -$191 |
| $21 (-10%) | -$127 | -$145 | -$167 | -$191 |
| $22 (-5%) | -$72 | -$92 | -$119 | -$185 |
| $23 (-2%) | -$30 | -$50 | -$76 | -$115 |
| $23 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$19 | -$43 | -$69 |
| $24 (+2%) | +$33 | +$15 | -$6 | -$23 |
| $24 (+5%) | +$87 | +$72 | +$56 | +$47 |
| $26 (+10%) | +$185 | +$174 | +$165 | +$163 |
| $26 (+12%) ← target | +$226 | +$217 | +$210 | +$209 |
| $27 (+15%) | +$291 | +$284 | +$279 | +$279 |
| $28 (+20%) | +$401 | +$397 | +$395 | +$395 |
Uses CMCSA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.