Target Price Playground
CMCSA
$23.22
🟢
CMCSA IV: 24.5% — LOW
(-64.8% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $25 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $23.22 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $25 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.5 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CMCSA hits $25 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$228 (10.0%) on $2,272 risked, vs +$178 (7.7%) for 100 shares on $2,322. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CMCSA is at $25. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CMCSA hits $25 by Dec 18
+$228
+10.0% on $2,272 risked
Max Profit
+$228
If the stock ≥ $25 at expiry
Max Loss
−$2,272
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$22.72
-2.15% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.68 / 1.0 / -2.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CMCSA Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19 (-20%) | -$416 | -$414 | -$414 | -$414 |
| $20 (-15%) | -$304 | -$300 | -$298 | -$298 |
| $21 (-10%) | -$198 | -$189 | -$183 | -$182 |
| $22 (-5%) | -$102 | -$86 | -$71 | -$66 |
| $23 (-2%) | -$49 | -$29 | -$8 | +$4 |
| $23 (0%) ← spot | -$18 | +$5 | +$30 | +$50 |
| $24 (+2%) | +$12 | +$36 | +$66 | +$96 |
| $24 (+5%) | +$51 | +$78 | +$112 | +$166 |
| $25 (+8%) ← target | +$82 | +$110 | +$145 | +$228 |
| $26 (+10%) | +$105 | +$133 | +$168 | +$228 |
| $27 (+15%) | +$144 | +$170 | +$200 | +$228 |
| $28 (+20%) | +$171 | +$192 | +$215 | +$228 |
Uses CMCSA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.