Target Price Playground
CRWD
$242.49
๐ก
CRWD IV: 64.0% โ NORMAL
(-5.2% vs 30d avg of 67.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.97 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $225 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.86 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $215 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$789 (111.0%) on $711 risked, vs $-2,749 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $24,249. Options give 9.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $215 by Nov 20
+$789
+111.0% on $711 risked
Max Profit
+$789
If the stock โค $225 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$711
Net debit
Break-even
$232.89
-3.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.12 / -1.3 / 1.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | +$452 | +$507 | +$616 | +$789 |
| $206 (-15%) | +$345 | +$386 | +$479 | +$789 |
| $215 (-11%) โ target | +$261 | +$288 | +$353 | +$789 |
| $218 (-10%) | +$230 | +$251 | +$303 | +$789 |
| $230 (-5%) | +$114 | +$110 | +$107 | +$252 |
| $238 (-2%) | +$46 | +$26 | -$11 | -$475 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$28 | -$87 | -$711 |
| $247 (+2%) | -$42 | -$80 | -$159 | -$711 |
| $255 (+5%) | -$105 | -$156 | -$260 | -$711 |
| $267 (+10%) | -$203 | -$270 | -$401 | -$711 |
| $279 (+15%) | -$290 | -$367 | -$508 | -$711 |
| $291 (+20%) | -$366 | -$448 | -$583 | -$711 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.