Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $255 by Nov 20: the cash-secured put returns +$1,486 (7.1%) on $-1,486 credit (max loss $21,014), vs +$1,251 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $24,249. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$2,494 | -$2,207 | -$1,860 | -$1,615 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$1,756 | -$1,413 | -$958 | -$402 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$1,123 | -$744 | -$218 | +$810 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$590 | -$195 | +$352 | +$1,486 |
| $238 (-2%) | -$315 | +$79 | +$617 | +$1,486 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$149 | +$241 | +$765 | +$1,486 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$5 | +$388 | +$892 | +$1,486 |
| $255 (+5%) โ target | +$221 | +$589 | +$1,054 | +$1,486 |
| $267 (+10%) | +$500 | +$837 | +$1,229 | +$1,486 |
| $279 (+15%) | +$729 | +$1,027 | +$1,341 | +$1,486 |
| $291 (+20%) | +$909 | +$1,166 | +$1,407 | +$1,486 |