Target Price Playground
CRWD
$242.49
๐ก
CRWD IV: 64.0% โ NORMAL
(-5.2% vs 30d avg of 67.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Dec '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.6 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $230 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.9 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $230 by Nov 20: the diagonal put spread returns +$998 (93.2%) on $1,070 risked, vs $-1,249 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $24,249. Options give 17.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $230 by Nov 20
+$998
+93.2% on $1,070 risked
Max Profit
+$987
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$975
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$252.23
+4.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.78 / 1.26 / 8.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | +$2 | +$60 | +$133 | +$63 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$5 | +$71 | +$195 | +$279 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$29 | +$55 | +$213 | +$615 |
| $230 (-5%) โ target | -$69 | +$14 | +$178 | +$1,073 |
| $238 (-2%) | -$102 | -$25 | +$127 | +$678 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$126 | -$54 | +$85 | +$457 |
| $247 (+2%) | -$151 | -$86 | +$36 | +$257 |
| $255 (+5%) | -$192 | -$139 | -$46 | -$4 |
| $267 (+10%) | -$266 | -$235 | -$197 | -$347 |
| $279 (+15%) | -$344 | -$336 | -$352 | -$592 |
| $291 (+20%) | -$422 | -$437 | -$498 | -$762 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.