Target Price Playground
CRWD
$242.49
๐ก
CRWD IV: 64.0% โ NORMAL
(-5.2% vs 30d avg of 67.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.43 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $270 by Nov 20: the long call returns +$357 (13.5%) on $2,643 risked, vs +$2,751 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $24,249. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $270 by Nov 20
+$357
+13.5% on $2,643 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,643
Premium paid
Break-even
$266.43
+9.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.24 / -19.47 / 40.11
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$1,910 | -$2,203 | -$2,505 | -$2,643 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$1,542 | -$1,905 | -$2,332 | -$2,643 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$1,077 | -$1,498 | -$2,035 | -$2,643 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$513 | -$974 | -$1,589 | -$2,643 |
| $238 (-2%) | -$130 | -$605 | -$1,245 | -$2,643 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$144 | -$336 | -$984 | -$2,394 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$433 | -$50 | -$698 | -$1,909 |
| $255 (+5%) | +$890 | +$409 | -$227 | -$1,182 |
| $267 (+10%) | +$1,717 | +$1,251 | +$663 | +$31 |
| $270 (+11%) โ target | +$1,951 | +$1,493 | +$921 | +$357 |
| $279 (+15%) | +$2,613 | +$2,176 | +$1,656 | +$1,243 |
| $291 (+20%) | +$3,570 | +$3,169 | +$2,727 | +$2,456 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.