Target Price Playground
CRWD
$242.49
๐ก
CRWD IV: 64.0% โ NORMAL
(-5.2% vs 30d avg of 67.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.97 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $215 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$303 (13.8%) on $2,197 risked, vs $-2,749 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $24,249. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $215 by Nov 20
+$303
+13.8% on $2,197 risked
Max Profit
+$21,803
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,197
Premium paid
Break-even
$218.03
-10.09% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.1 / -16.97 / 40.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | +$2,945 | +$2,714 | +$2,477 | +$2,404 |
| $206 (-15%) | +$2,100 | +$1,799 | +$1,437 | +$1,191 |
| $215 (-11%) โ target | +$1,543 | +$1,198 | +$753 | +$303 |
| $218 (-10%) | +$1,353 | +$994 | +$522 | -$21 |
| $230 (-5%) | +$704 | +$305 | -$245 | -$1,234 |
| $238 (-2%) | +$361 | -$53 | -$628 | -$1,961 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$150 | -$269 | -$852 | -$2,197 |
| $247 (+2%) | -$47 | -$468 | -$1,051 | -$2,197 |
| $255 (+5%) | -$316 | -$736 | -$1,307 | -$2,197 |
| $267 (+10%) | -$703 | -$1,106 | -$1,630 | -$2,197 |
| $279 (+15%) | -$1,019 | -$1,394 | -$1,849 | -$2,197 |
| $291 (+20%) | -$1,275 | -$1,614 | -$1,991 | -$2,197 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.