Target Price Playground
CRWD
$242.49
๐ก
CRWD IV: 64.0% โ NORMAL
(-5.2% vs 30d avg of 67.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $242.49 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $270 by Nov 20: the long stock returns +$2,751 (11.3%) on $24,249 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Nov 20.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $270 by Nov 20
+$2,751
+11.3% on $24,249 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$24,249
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$242.49
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 16 | Nov 15 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$4,850 | -$4,850 | -$4,850 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$3,637 | -$3,637 | -$3,637 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$2,425 | -$2,425 | -$2,425 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$1,212 | -$1,212 | -$1,212 |
| $238 (-2%) | -$485 | -$485 | -$485 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$485 | +$485 | +$485 |
| $255 (+5%) | +$1,212 | +$1,212 | +$1,212 |
| $267 (+10%) | +$2,425 | +$2,425 | +$2,425 |
| $270 (+11%) โ target | +$2,751 | +$2,751 | +$2,751 |
| $279 (+15%) | +$3,637 | +$3,637 | +$3,637 |
| $291 (+20%) | +$4,850 | +$4,850 | +$4,850 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.