Target Price Playground
CRWD
$242.49
๐ก
CRWD IV: 64.0% โ NORMAL
(-5.2% vs 30d avg of 67.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $242.49 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $230 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.9 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $265 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$561 (2.2%) on $25,939 risked, vs +$2,251 (9.3%) for 100 shares on $24,249. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $265 by Nov 20
+$561
+2.2% on $25,939 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,939
Put floors you at $230
Break-even
$259.39
+6.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.69 / -15.94 / 39.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$2,185 | -$2,454 | -$2,765 | -$2,939 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$1,747 | -$2,078 | -$2,506 | -$2,939 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$1,207 | -$1,583 | -$2,097 | -$2,939 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$567 | -$967 | -$1,523 | -$2,902 |
| $238 (-2%) | -$138 | -$542 | -$1,100 | -$2,175 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$166 | -$237 | -$788 | -$1,690 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$484 | +$85 | -$453 | -$1,205 |
| $255 (+5%) | +$984 | +$595 | +$88 | -$478 |
| $265 (+9%) โ target | +$1,744 | +$1,378 | +$928 | +$561 |
| $279 (+15%) | +$2,831 | +$2,506 | +$2,145 | +$1,947 |
| $291 (+20%) | +$3,840 | +$3,555 | +$3,271 | +$3,160 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.