Target Price Playground
CRWD
$242.49
๐ก
CRWD IV: 64.0% โ NORMAL
(-5.2% vs 30d avg of 67.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.43 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.97 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $280 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns $-840 (-17.4%) on $4,840 risked, vs +$3,751 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $24,249. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $280 by Nov 20
$-840
-17.4% on $4,840 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,840
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$288.40
+18.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.14 / -36.44 / 80.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | +$1,036 | +$512 | -$28 | -$239 |
| $206 (-15%) | +$558 | -$106 | -$894 | -$1,452 |
| $218 (-10%) | +$276 | -$504 | -$1,514 | -$2,664 |
| $230 (-5%) | +$191 | -$669 | -$1,834 | -$3,877 |
| $238 (-2%) | +$231 | -$658 | -$1,873 | -$4,604 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$294 | -$605 | -$1,836 | -$4,591 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$386 | -$518 | -$1,749 | -$4,106 |
| $255 (+5%) | +$574 | -$326 | -$1,533 | -$3,379 |
| $267 (+10%) | +$1,014 | +$145 | -$968 | -$2,166 |
| $280 (+15%) โ target | +$1,655 | +$849 | -$112 | -$840 |
| $291 (+20%) | +$2,295 | +$1,555 | +$737 | +$259 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.