Target Price Playground
CSX
$51.99
🟢
CSX IV: 24.3% — LOW
(-65.5% vs 30d avg of 70.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $57 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $51.99 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $49 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.63 · Δ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CSX hits $57 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$438 (8.3%) on $5,262 risked, vs +$501 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $5,199. Options give 0.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CSX is at $57. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CSX hits $57 by Dec 18
+$438
+8.3% on $5,262 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$362
Put floors you at $49
Break-even
$52.62
+1.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
77.7 / -1.32 / 5.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CSX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 (-20%) | -$384 | -$379 | -$372 | -$362 |
| $44 (-15%) | -$360 | -$367 | -$369 | -$362 |
| $47 (-10%) | -$297 | -$318 | -$344 | -$362 |
| $49 (-5%) | -$177 | -$205 | -$243 | -$323 |
| $51 (-2%) | -$77 | -$102 | -$134 | -$167 |
| $52 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$22 | -$47 | -$63 |
| $53 (+2%) | +$85 | +$66 | +$48 | +$41 |
| $55 (+5%) | +$221 | +$208 | +$199 | +$197 |
| $57 (+10%) ← target | +$446 | +$441 | +$438 | +$438 |
| $60 (+15%) | +$719 | +$717 | +$717 | +$717 |
| $62 (+20%) | +$977 | +$977 | +$977 | +$977 |
Uses CSX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.