Target Price Playground
DDOG
$278.24
🟢
DDOG IV: 60.4% — LOW
(-22.6% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $280 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $31.46 · Δ 0.55
SHORT CALL · $300 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $22.75 · Δ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If DDOG hits $310 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,129 (129.6%) on $871 risked, vs +$3,176 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $27,824. Options give 11.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DDOG is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if DDOG hits $310 by Dec 18
+$1,129
+129.6% on $871 risked
Max Profit
+$1,129
If the stock ≥ $300 at expiry
Max Loss
−$871
Net debit
Break-even
$288.71
+3.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
10.11 / -1.1 / -2.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| DDOG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $223 (-20%) | -$571 | -$648 | -$772 | -$871 |
| $237 (-15%) | -$462 | -$534 | -$672 | -$871 |
| $250 (-10%) | -$341 | -$399 | -$526 | -$871 |
| $264 (-5%) | -$212 | -$247 | -$336 | -$871 |
| $273 (-2%) | -$133 | -$151 | -$207 | -$871 |
| $278 (0%) ← spot | -$80 | -$86 | -$118 | -$871 |
| $284 (+2%) | -$27 | -$21 | -$26 | -$491 |
| $292 (+5%) | +$52 | +$76 | +$111 | +$344 |
| $306 (+10%) | +$180 | +$232 | +$330 | +$1,129 |
| $310 (+11%) ← target | +$215 | +$275 | +$388 | +$1,129 |
| $320 (+15%) | +$300 | +$378 | +$525 | +$1,129 |
| $334 (+20%) | +$412 | +$509 | +$689 | +$1,129 |
Uses DDOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.