Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
DDOG
$278.24
🟢
DDOG IV: 60.4% — LOW (-22.6% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $290 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $255 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $19.25 · Δ -0.32
P&L at Expiry Now $278 Target $290 $195 $278 $362
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If DDOG hits $290 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$1,925 (8.2%) on $-1,925 credit (max loss $23,575), vs +$1,176 (4.2%) for 100 shares on $27,824. Options give 2.0× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DDOG is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if DDOG hits $290 by Dec 18
+$1,925
+8.2% on $23,575 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,925
If the stock ≥ $255 at expiry
Max Loss
−$23,575
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$235.75
-15.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
88%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
31.63 / 18.44 / -43.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

DDOG Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$223 (-20%) -$2,557 -$2,174 -$1,713 -$1,316
$237 (-15%) -$1,756 -$1,312 -$736 +$75
$250 (-10%) -$1,067 -$585 +$59 +$1,467
$264 (-5%) -$485 +$11 +$668 +$1,925
$273 (-2%) -$183 +$310 +$953 +$1,925
$278 (0%) ← spot -$0 +$487 +$1,112 +$1,925
$284 (+2%) +$169 +$648 +$1,249 +$1,925
$290 (+4%) ← target +$342 +$809 +$1,378 +$1,925
$306 (+10%) +$723 +$1,147 +$1,619 +$1,925
$320 (+15%) +$984 +$1,363 +$1,747 +$1,925
$334 (+20%) +$1,192 +$1,523 +$1,824 +$1,925
Uses DDOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.