Target Price Playground
DDOG
$278.24
🟢
DDOG IV: 60.4% — LOW
(-22.6% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $280 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $31.46 · Δ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If DDOG hits $310 by Dec 18: the long call returns $-146 (-4.6%) on $3,146 risked, vs +$3,176 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $27,824. Options give 0.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DDOG is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if DDOG hits $310 by Dec 18
$-146
-4.6% on $3,146 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$3,146
Premium paid
Break-even
$311.46
+11.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.18 / -23.37 / 48.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| DDOG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $223 (-20%) | -$2,243 | -$2,616 | -$2,983 | -$3,146 |
| $237 (-15%) | -$1,822 | -$2,281 | -$2,792 | -$3,146 |
| $250 (-10%) | -$1,296 | -$1,828 | -$2,472 | -$3,146 |
| $264 (-5%) | -$667 | -$1,252 | -$1,995 | -$3,146 |
| $273 (-2%) | -$240 | -$847 | -$1,628 | -$3,146 |
| $278 (0%) ← spot | +$64 | -$552 | -$1,350 | -$3,146 |
| $284 (+2%) | +$384 | -$240 | -$1,045 | -$2,766 |
| $292 (+5%) | +$891 | +$264 | -$538 | -$1,931 |
| $306 (+10%) | +$1,804 | +$1,187 | +$422 | -$540 |
| $310 (+11%) ← target | +$2,078 | +$1,467 | +$717 | -$146 |
| $320 (+15%) | +$2,797 | +$2,205 | +$1,507 | +$852 |
| $334 (+20%) | +$3,857 | +$3,302 | +$2,687 | +$2,243 |
Uses DDOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.