Target Price Playground
DDOG
$278.24
🟢
DDOG IV: 60.4% — LOW
(-22.6% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $305 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $278.24 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $265 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $23.72 · Δ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If DDOG hits $305 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$304 (1.0%) on $30,196 risked, vs +$2,676 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $27,824. Options give 0.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DDOG is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if DDOG hits $305 by Dec 18
+$304
+1.0% on $30,196 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$3,696
Put floors you at $265
Break-even
$301.96
+8.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
63.47 / -19.33 / 46.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| DDOG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $223 (-20%) | -$2,719 | -$3,068 | -$3,461 | -$3,696 |
| $237 (-15%) | -$2,200 | -$2,624 | -$3,150 | -$3,696 |
| $250 (-10%) | -$1,571 | -$2,048 | -$2,675 | -$3,696 |
| $264 (-5%) | -$836 | -$1,343 | -$2,022 | -$3,696 |
| $273 (-2%) | -$345 | -$860 | -$1,545 | -$2,928 |
| $278 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$515 | -$1,194 | -$2,372 |
| $284 (+2%) | +$360 | -$152 | -$818 | -$1,816 |
| $292 (+5%) | +$927 | +$424 | -$212 | -$981 |
| $305 (+10%) ← target | +$1,855 | +$1,378 | +$807 | +$304 |
| $320 (+15%) | +$3,012 | +$2,577 | +$2,098 | +$1,802 |
| $334 (+20%) | +$4,148 | +$3,759 | +$3,369 | +$3,193 |
Uses DDOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.