Target Price Playground
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 38.0% — LOW
(-16.3% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $210 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $14.03 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $195 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.7 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FANG hits $185 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$967 (181.4%) on $533 risked, vs $-2,708 (-12.8%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 14.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FANG hits $185 by Dec 18
+$967
+181.4% on $533 risked
Max Profit
+$967
If the stock ≤ $195 at expiry
Max Loss
−$533
Net debit
Break-even
$204.67
-3.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-19.22 / -1.36 / 5.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FANG Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 (-20%) | +$832 | +$889 | +$948 | +$967 |
| $180 (-15%) | +$687 | +$757 | +$866 | +$967 |
| $185 (-13%) ← target | +$602 | +$668 | +$785 | +$967 |
| $191 (-10%) | +$482 | +$533 | +$635 | +$967 |
| $201 (-5%) | +$245 | +$250 | +$259 | +$319 |
| $208 (-2%) | +$104 | +$78 | +$22 | -$317 |
| $212 (0%) ← spot | +$15 | -$28 | -$118 | -$533 |
| $216 (+2%) | -$68 | -$125 | -$236 | -$533 |
| $223 (+5%) | -$178 | -$247 | -$367 | -$533 |
| $233 (+10%) | -$320 | -$390 | -$482 | -$533 |
| $244 (+15%) | -$415 | -$470 | -$521 | -$533 |
| $255 (+20%) | -$472 | -$508 | -$531 | -$533 |
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.