Target Price Playground
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 38.0% — LOW
(-16.3% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $240 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $210 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.55 · Δ 0.56
SHORT CALL · $230 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.67 · Δ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FANG hits $240 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,212 (153.8%) on $788 risked, vs +$2,792 (13.2%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 11.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FANG hits $240 by Dec 18
+$1,212
+153.8% on $788 risked
Max Profit
+$1,212
If the stock ≥ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
−$788
Net debit
Break-even
$217.88
+2.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
27.66 / -1.97 / 2.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FANG Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 (-20%) | -$742 | -$772 | -$787 | -$788 |
| $180 (-15%) | -$663 | -$724 | -$777 | -$788 |
| $191 (-10%) | -$517 | -$603 | -$718 | -$788 |
| $201 (-5%) | -$298 | -$379 | -$526 | -$788 |
| $208 (-2%) | -$138 | -$199 | -$321 | -$788 |
| $212 (0%) ← spot | -$24 | -$64 | -$151 | -$580 |
| $216 (+2%) | +$92 | +$76 | +$37 | -$156 |
| $223 (+5%) | +$267 | +$288 | +$327 | +$480 |
| $233 (+10%) | +$538 | +$610 | +$748 | +$1,212 |
| $240 (+13%) ← target | +$686 | +$777 | +$936 | +$1,212 |
| $244 (+15%) | +$761 | +$859 | +$1,016 | +$1,212 |
| $255 (+20%) | +$928 | +$1,023 | +$1,143 | +$1,212 |
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.