Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 38.0% — LOW (-16.3% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $225 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $195 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.7 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry Now $212 Target $225 $148 $212 $276
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If FANG hits $225 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$870 (4.7%) on $-870 credit (max loss $18,630), vs +$1,292 (6.1%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $225. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if FANG hits $225 by Dec 18
+$870
+4.7% on $18,630 max loss
Max Profit
+$870
If the stock ≥ $195 at expiry
Max Loss
−$18,630
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$186.30
-12.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
24.77 / 9.32 / -25.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

FANG Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$170 (-20%) -$1,730 -$1,676 -$1,643 -$1,664
$180 (-15%) -$917 -$802 -$674 -$603
$191 (-10%) -$273 -$116 +$92 +$457
$201 (-5%) +$193 +$354 +$564 +$870
$208 (-2%) +$392 +$539 +$716 +$870
$212 (0%) ← spot +$497 +$630 +$778 +$870
$216 (+2%) +$582 +$699 +$817 +$870
$223 (+5%) +$679 +$771 +$849 +$870
$225 (+6%) ← target +$706 +$790 +$855 +$870
$233 (+10%) +$778 +$833 +$866 +$870
$244 (+15%) +$829 +$858 +$869 +$870
$255 (+20%) +$852 +$866 +$870 +$870
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.