Target Price Playground
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 37.5% — LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $210 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $13.1 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $200 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.3 · Δ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FANG hits $200 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$880 (183.3%) on $480 risked, vs $-1,208 (-5.7%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 32.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FANG hits $200 by Dec 18
+$880
+183.3% on $480 risked
Max Profit
+$858
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$478
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$218.11
+2.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-13.82 / 1.02 / 12.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FANG Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 (-20%) | +$469 | +$483 | +$483 | +$458 |
| $180 (-15%) | +$452 | +$490 | +$526 | +$501 |
| $191 (-10%) | +$396 | +$451 | +$535 | +$632 |
| $200 (-6%) ← target | +$312 | +$364 | +$456 | +$869 |
| $208 (-2%) | +$218 | +$255 | +$316 | +$411 |
| $212 (0%) ← spot | +$162 | +$186 | +$222 | +$213 |
| $216 (+2%) | +$104 | +$115 | +$124 | +$48 |
| $223 (+5%) | +$17 | +$8 | -$20 | -$141 |
| $233 (+10%) | -$120 | -$153 | -$217 | -$333 |
| $244 (+15%) | -$234 | -$278 | -$344 | -$423 |
| $255 (+20%) | -$321 | -$363 | -$415 | -$460 |
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.