Target Price Playground
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 37.5% — LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $240 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $210 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.55 · Δ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FANG hits $240 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$1,745 (139.0%) on $1,255 risked, vs +$2,792 (13.2%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 10.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FANG hits $240 by Dec 18
+$1,745
+139.0% on $1,255 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,255
Premium paid
Break-even
$222.55
+4.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.99 / -11.52 / 30.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FANG Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 (-20%) | -$1,200 | -$1,238 | -$1,254 | -$1,255 |
| $180 (-15%) | -$1,097 | -$1,183 | -$1,244 | -$1,255 |
| $191 (-10%) | -$886 | -$1,033 | -$1,181 | -$1,255 |
| $201 (-5%) | -$527 | -$726 | -$968 | -$1,255 |
| $208 (-2%) | -$232 | -$447 | -$720 | -$1,255 |
| $212 (0%) ← spot | -$2 | -$220 | -$498 | -$1,047 |
| $216 (+2%) | +$254 | +$39 | -$231 | -$623 |
| $223 (+5%) | +$683 | +$480 | +$242 | +$13 |
| $233 (+10%) | +$1,502 | +$1,336 | +$1,170 | +$1,074 |
| $240 (+13%) ← target | +$2,073 | +$1,933 | +$1,809 | +$1,745 |
| $244 (+15%) | +$2,418 | +$2,292 | +$2,188 | +$2,134 |
| $255 (+20%) | +$3,398 | +$3,307 | +$3,239 | +$3,195 |
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.