Target Price Playground
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 38.0% — LOW
(-16.3% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $210 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $14.03 · Δ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FANG hits $185 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$1,097 (78.2%) on $1,403 risked, vs $-2,708 (-12.8%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 6.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FANG hits $185 by Dec 18
+$1,097
+78.2% on $1,403 risked
Max Profit
+$19,597
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,403
Premium paid
Break-even
$195.97
-7.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-43.99 / -10.68 / 30.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FANG Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 (-20%) | +$2,562 | +$2,565 | +$2,591 | +$2,631 |
| $180 (-15%) | +$1,604 | +$1,559 | +$1,540 | +$1,570 |
| $185 (-13%) ← target | +$1,209 | +$1,138 | +$1,084 | +$1,097 |
| $191 (-10%) | +$755 | +$649 | +$542 | +$510 |
| $201 (-5%) | +$53 | -$104 | -$305 | -$551 |
| $208 (-2%) | -$288 | -$461 | -$694 | -$1,187 |
| $212 (0%) ← spot | -$482 | -$659 | -$895 | -$1,403 |
| $216 (+2%) | -$650 | -$824 | -$1,053 | -$1,403 |
| $223 (+5%) | -$857 | -$1,018 | -$1,216 | -$1,403 |
| $233 (+10%) | -$1,099 | -$1,224 | -$1,348 | -$1,403 |
| $244 (+15%) | -$1,243 | -$1,327 | -$1,390 | -$1,403 |
| $255 (+20%) | -$1,324 | -$1,374 | -$1,401 | -$1,403 |
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.