Target Price Playground
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 37.5% — LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $235 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $212.08 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $200 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.3 · Δ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FANG hits $235 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,462 (6.6%) on $22,038 risked, vs +$2,292 (10.8%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 0.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FANG hits $235 by Dec 18
+$1,462
+6.6% on $22,038 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$2,038
Put floors you at $200
Break-even
$220.38
+3.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.1 / -9.57 / 25.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FANG Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 (-20%) | -$2,032 | -$2,064 | -$2,071 | -$2,038 |
| $180 (-15%) | -$1,843 | -$1,935 | -$2,023 | -$2,038 |
| $191 (-10%) | -$1,504 | -$1,650 | -$1,834 | -$2,038 |
| $201 (-5%) | -$991 | -$1,159 | -$1,385 | -$1,890 |
| $208 (-2%) | -$601 | -$765 | -$975 | -$1,254 |
| $212 (0%) ← spot | -$310 | -$464 | -$652 | -$830 |
| $216 (+2%) | +$4 | -$137 | -$296 | -$406 |
| $223 (+5%) | +$511 | +$394 | +$279 | +$230 |
| $235 (+11%) ← target | +$1,588 | +$1,518 | +$1,470 | +$1,462 |
| $244 (+15%) | +$2,419 | +$2,375 | +$2,353 | +$2,351 |
| $255 (+20%) | +$3,442 | +$3,420 | +$3,412 | +$3,412 |
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.