Target Price Playground
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 37.5% — LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $210 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.55 · Δ 0.56
LONG PUT · $210 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $14.03 · Δ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FANG hits $245 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$842 (31.7%) on $2,658 risked, vs +$3,292 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 2.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FANG hits $245 by Dec 18
+$842
+31.7% on $2,658 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$2,658
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$236.58
+11.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
12.0 / -22.2 / 60.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FANG Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 (-20%) | +$1,361 | +$1,327 | +$1,336 | +$1,376 |
| $180 (-15%) | +$506 | +$377 | +$296 | +$315 |
| $191 (-10%) | -$132 | -$384 | -$639 | -$745 |
| $201 (-5%) | -$475 | -$830 | -$1,273 | -$1,806 |
| $208 (-2%) | -$520 | -$908 | -$1,414 | -$2,442 |
| $212 (0%) ← spot | -$484 | -$879 | -$1,393 | -$2,450 |
| $216 (+2%) | -$395 | -$786 | -$1,284 | -$2,026 |
| $223 (+5%) | -$173 | -$538 | -$974 | -$1,390 |
| $233 (+10%) | +$403 | +$112 | -$178 | -$329 |
| $245 (+16%) ← target | +$1,263 | +$1,062 | +$905 | +$842 |
| $255 (+20%) | +$2,074 | +$1,933 | +$1,838 | +$1,792 |
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.