Target Price Playground
FANG
$212.08
🟢
FANG IV: 37.5% — LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $212.08 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $230 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.67 · Δ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FANG hits $230 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$2,259 (10.9%) on $20,741 risked, vs +$1,792 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $21,208. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FANG is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FANG hits $230 by Dec 18
+$2,259
+10.9% on $20,741 risked
Max Profit
+$2,259
If the stock ≥ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
−$20,741
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$207.41
-2.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
71.68 / 9.55 / -28.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FANG Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 (-20%) | -$3,784 | -$3,776 | -$3,775 | -$3,775 |
| $180 (-15%) | -$2,747 | -$2,722 | -$2,714 | -$2,714 |
| $191 (-10%) | -$1,752 | -$1,691 | -$1,657 | -$1,654 |
| $201 (-5%) | -$830 | -$714 | -$618 | -$593 |
| $208 (-2%) | -$330 | -$176 | -$25 | +$43 |
| $212 (0%) ← spot | -$22 | +$155 | +$347 | +$467 |
| $216 (+2%) | +$262 | +$461 | +$692 | +$891 |
| $223 (+5%) | +$644 | +$867 | +$1,145 | +$1,527 |
| $230 (+8%) ← target | +$1,014 | +$1,252 | +$1,555 | +$2,259 |
| $233 (+10%) | +$1,157 | +$1,396 | +$1,699 | +$2,259 |
| $244 (+15%) | +$1,525 | +$1,747 | +$2,008 | +$2,259 |
| $255 (+20%) | +$1,772 | +$1,958 | +$2,146 | +$2,259 |
Uses FANG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.