Target Price Playground
FAST
$51.91
🟢
FAST IV: 25.3% — LOW
(-42.3% vs 30d avg of 43.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $46 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $52 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.92 · Δ -0.46
SHORT PUT · $48 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.53 · Δ -0.18
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FAST hits $46 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$261 (187.2%) on $139 risked, vs $-591 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $5,191. Options give 16.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FAST is at $46. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FAST hits $46 by Dec 18
+$261
+187.2% on $139 risked
Max Profit
+$261
If the stock ≤ $48 at expiry
Max Loss
−$139
Net debit
Break-even
$50.61
-2.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-28.1 / -0.51 / 2.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FAST Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 (-20%) | +$245 | +$254 | +$260 | +$261 |
| $44 (-15%) | +$215 | +$232 | +$252 | +$261 |
| $46 (-11%) ← target | +$176 | +$195 | +$225 | +$261 |
| $47 (-10%) | +$157 | +$175 | +$206 | +$261 |
| $49 (-5%) | +$79 | +$85 | +$95 | +$130 |
| $51 (-2%) | +$31 | +$26 | +$15 | -$26 |
| $52 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$10 | -$32 | -$130 |
| $53 (+2%) | -$27 | -$42 | -$70 | -$139 |
| $55 (+5%) | -$62 | -$80 | -$108 | -$139 |
| $57 (+10%) | -$102 | -$117 | -$133 | -$139 |
| $60 (+15%) | -$124 | -$132 | -$138 | -$139 |
| $62 (+20%) | -$133 | -$137 | -$139 | -$139 |
Uses FAST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.