Target Price Playground
FAST
$51.91
🟢
FAST IV: 25.3% — LOW
(-42.3% vs 30d avg of 43.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $49 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $52 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $2.36 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $49 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.77 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FAST hits $49 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$173 (109.3%) on $159 risked, vs $-291 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $5,191. Options give 19.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FAST is at $49. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FAST hits $49 by Dec 18
+$173
+109.3% on $159 risked
Max Profit
+$169
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$159
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$51.75
-0.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-20.77 / 0.14 / 3.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FAST Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 (-20%) | +$121 | +$124 | +$124 | +$123 |
| $44 (-15%) | +$114 | +$122 | +$127 | +$125 |
| $47 (-10%) | +$91 | +$105 | +$123 | +$137 |
| $49 (-6%) ← target | +$57 | +$69 | +$90 | +$173 |
| $51 (-2%) | +$21 | +$28 | +$38 | +$47 |
| $52 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | +$2 | +$4 | -$8 |
| $53 (+2%) | -$22 | -$23 | -$29 | -$52 |
| $55 (+5%) | -$52 | -$59 | -$72 | -$99 |
| $57 (+10%) | -$95 | -$105 | -$121 | -$140 |
| $60 (+15%) | -$124 | -$133 | -$145 | -$154 |
| $62 (+20%) | -$141 | -$148 | -$154 | -$158 |
Uses FAST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.